Zvi's Mic Works! Recursive Self-Improvement, Live Player Analysis, Anthropic vs DoW + More!
Hello, and welcome back to the Cognitive Revolution!
Today, I'm excited to welcome Zvi Mowshowitz, author of the indispensable AI-focused Substack, Don't Worry About the Vase, back for his record 12th appearance on the podcast.
Whenever I get the chance to catch up with Zvi, I try to get his take on all of the most important recent developments in AI, and with so much going on, this episode stretches to more than 3 hours.
We start with the critical question of Recursive Self-Improvement. Zvi explains why he thinks recent events mark a transition from the beginning to the middle of the AI story, as well as what he would need to see to feel that we've entered the AI end-game, namely that AIs begin driving AI advances to the point that human research talent no longer matters.
From there, we discuss the rising narrative of AI-related job loss, I ask Zvi to estimate the productivity impact that AI is already having on the economy, and we discuss the bankrupt ethics of focusing one's energy on escaping the so-called "permanent underclass," which we both see as flagrant defection, and Zvi colorfully argues, won't work anyway.
After that, we consider the AI Live Players. The list, we agree, seems to have shrunk to just 3 companies, with Anthropic probably slightly leading, OpenAI neck and neck, and Google – in Zvi's mind – most at risk of falling out of the top tier. Zvi also explains why he thinks Chinese companies won't soon catch up, even if they do get an influx of compute, and explores what xAI and Meta might possibly do to get back into the race.
From here, we dig into Anthropic's recent update to their Responsible Scaling Policy, consider their conflict with the Department of War, and we get Zvi's take on the efficacy of Anthropic's Constitutional approach and whether it's realistic to expect that a powerful AI could be robustly good.
Toward the end, we check in on his current p(doom) number, compare notes on how we're each using AI to boost our personal productivity, briefly debate the merits of Goodfire's intentional design research agenda, assess the AI safety community's currently available options, and I get some personal financial and professional advice.
For a mix of broad situational awareness and razor-sharp insight, there is arguably nobody better, and so I hope you enjoy this wide-ranging survey of the AI state of play, with the one and only Zvi Mowshowitz.
Watch now!
Thank you for being part of The Cognitive Revolution,
Nathan Labenz