Jake Sullivan on Navigating AI Uncertainty and Managing Competition with China

Jake Sullivan on Navigating AI Uncertainty and Managing Competition with China

Today Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor from 2021-2025 joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss AI as a critical national security issue.


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Today Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor from 2021-2025 joins The Cognitive Revolution to discuss AI as a critical national security issue.

Check out our sponsors: Labelbox, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify.

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- Four-Category Framework: Sullivan organizes his thinking about AI into security, economics, society, and technology categories rather than focusing primarily on existential risks
- "Managed Competition" with China: He advocates for a model where the US and China "compete like hell" while maintaining sufficient guardrails to prevent conflict
- Skepticism of Grand Bargains: Competition is a "chronic condition" of the US-China relationship that cannot be solved with a strategic condominium
- AI in Modern Warfare: Current conflicts are providing "glimpses of the future" with lessons about scale, attritability, and the potential for autonomous weapons
- US Military Adoption Concerns: Sullivan worries that Pentagon bureaucracy prevents rapid AI adoption while China's PLA may be better positioned to integrate AI capabilities
- Private Sector Leadership: AI is "the first technology with such profound national security applications that the government really had very little to do with"

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CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(04:52) Introduction and AI Worldview
(07:15) Washington's AI Understanding
(14:28) Concrete AI Opportunities
(22:09) Trump AI Action Plan (Part 1)
(22:19) Sponsors: Labelbox | Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
(24:55) Trump AI Action Plan (Part 2)
(29:09) Middle East AI Deals (Part 1)
(34:09) Sponsor: Shopify
(36:06) Middle East AI Deals (Part 2)
(36:54) Understanding China Threat
(48:26) Export Controls Strategy
(59:39) Global AI Competition
(01:02:26) Managing Great Power Competition
(01:08:46) AI in Modern Warfare
(01:10:41) Final Thoughts Economic Impact
(01:12:25) Outro

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